The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Gazovik Orenburg v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-09-17 13:15 UTC

Final: Gazovik Orenburg 0–0 FC Krasnodar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 19.20%5.21fair odd
EV +0.781%
Edge +0.149%
Kelly +0.184%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.30%19.41%19.20%20.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.955.005.2522.22%20.20%20.00%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 57.77%1.73fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -5.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.53%57.39%57.77%58.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.641.651.6762.50%61.03%60.61%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.04%4.34fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.384%
Kelly -0.501%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.61%23.20%23.04%24.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.044.104.2726.32%24.73%24.39%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gazovik Orenburg (Local): 19.20%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 57.77%; Draw: 23.04%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.781%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.30%EV +0.781%E +0.149%K +0.184%G +0.001%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -4.10%E -2.47%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.84%EV -7.17%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-17 13:10
Pinnacle🎯5.11I 19.57%NM 18.89%EV -1.91%E -0.373%K -0.464%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.50%EV -4.68%E -2.84%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.61%EV -1.64%E -0.384%K -0.501%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-17 13:00
Marathon Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.24%EV -4.02%E -0.804%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.59%EV -3.53%E -2.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.17%EV -4.40%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-17 13:00
Bovada🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -4.02%E -0.804%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -11.31%E -2.94%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-17 13:09
BetOnline.ag🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -5.94%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.95%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.56%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 13:10
BetUS🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -5.94%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.95%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.56%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 13:10
Codere (IT)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -13.62%E -3.03%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%EV -4.68%E -2.84%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -12.47%E -3.28%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 12:21
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.