The School of Odds
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Gazovik Orenburg v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 10:00 UTC

Final: Gazovik Orenburg 4–0 FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 40.96%2.44fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.37%40.96%41.13%41.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.292.322.3845.45%43.67%43.10%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 30.32%3.30fair odd
EV +0.058%
Edge +0.018%
Kelly +0.025%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.60%30.32%30.10%31.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.173.3034.48%31.87%31.55%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.72%3.48fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.522%
Kelly -0.738%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.58%28.72%28.78%28.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.283.313.4231.75%30.45%30.21%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gazovik Orenburg (Local): 40.96%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 30.32%; Draw: 28.72%. For FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.298. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.300, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.058%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 41.37%EV -2.51%E -1.06%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84%EV +0.058%E +0.018%K +0.025%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.79%EV -1.78%E -0.522%K -0.738%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-29 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -4.97%E -2.14%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.83%EV -2.37%E -0.735%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.76%EV -4.08%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-29 19:35
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.11%EV -4.97%E -2.14%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.08%EV -3.88%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.81%EV -4.94%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-05 07:46
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.88%E -4.49%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.01%E -1.94%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-29 19:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.37%EV -8.66%E -3.88%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -12.07%E -4.16%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -9.54%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-05 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.