The School of Odds
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Gazovik Orenburg v FC Akron Tolyatti

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 11:00 UTC

Final: Gazovik Orenburg 2–2 FC Akron Tolyatti

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 52.19%1.92fair odd
EV -5.01%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -6.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.66%52.19%51.90%53.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.791.811.8257.47%55.74%55.25%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 22.13%4.52fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.244%
Kelly -0.314%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.59%22.13%22.37%22.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.294.204.4724.39%23.33%23.81%22.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.68%3.89fair odd
EV -0.882%
Edge -0.229%
Kelly -0.308%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.09%25.68%25.74%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.703.653.8628.17%27.01%27.40%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gazovik Orenburg (Local): 52.19%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 22.13%; Draw: 25.68%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.86, with an expected value of -0.882%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.20%EV -5.01%E -2.75%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.71%EV -1.31%E -0.294%K -0.379%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.09%EV -0.882%E -0.229%K -0.308%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 10:50
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.02%EV -5.01%E -2.75%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.59%EV -1.09%E -0.244%K -0.314%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.39%EV -2.42%E -0.638%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-06 10:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.90%EV -5.53%E -3.05%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.06%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 10:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -7.09%E -3.99%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.28%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -8.84%E -2.49%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 10:35
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.88%EV -9.18%E -5.28%K -12.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.06%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 10:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.