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Gazovik Orenburg v CSKA Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 10:00 UTC

Final: Gazovik Orenburg 0–0 CSKA Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 29.49%3.39fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.632%
Kelly -0.905%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.30%29.72%29.49%30.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.203.3233.33%31.29%31.25%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CSKA Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 44.47%2.25fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.775%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.97%44.19%44.47%44.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.142.132.2148.78%46.82%46.95%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.04%3.84fair odd
EV -0.275%
Edge -0.072%
Kelly -0.097%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.53%26.09%26.04%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.653.603.8328.99%27.40%27.78%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gazovik Orenburg (Local): 29.49%; CSKA Moscow (Visit): 44.47%; Draw: 26.04%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.83, with an expected value of -0.275%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 29.68%EV -2.10%E -0.632%K -0.905%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.59%EV -1.71%E -0.775%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.73%EV -0.275%E -0.072%K -0.097%G +0.000%1.5%2026-10-31 04:29
Pinnacle🎯3.31I 30.21%NM 29.30%EV -2.39%E -0.723%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.70%EV -3.49%E -1.61%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 26.00%EV -2.88%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 07:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.64%EV -4.46%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.67%EV -4.38%E -2.04%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.68%EV -2.62%E -0.700%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-31 04:30
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.64%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.42%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 09:05
BetUS🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.64%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.42%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 09:05
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.59%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -8.83%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 04:30
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -11.54%E -3.85%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 42.97%EV -5.27%E -2.47%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -10.17%E -2.95%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 22:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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