The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FK Sochi v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Sochi (Local)

Prediction 15.15%6.60fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -0.523%
Kelly -0.620%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.15%15.15%15.15%17.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.046.356.3818.52%16.55%15.75%15.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 62.47%1.60fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.54%62.47%62.47%62.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.551.551.5664.94%64.52%64.52%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.37%4.47fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -0.881%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.37%22.37%22.37%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.184.304.3025.32%23.90%23.26%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Sochi (Local): 15.15%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 62.47%; Draw: 22.37%. For Spartak Moscow (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.56, with an expected value of -2.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯6.38I 15.67%NM 15.21%EV -3.34%E -0.523%K -0.620%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.22%EV -2.54%E -1.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%EV -3.79%E -0.881%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-01 14:19
Pinnacle🎯6.35I 15.75%NM 15.15%EV -3.79%E -0.597%K -0.708%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.47%EV -3.79%E -2.46%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.37%EV -3.79%E -0.881%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-01 13:54
Bovada🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -18.18%E -3.37%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.54%EV -3.16%E -2.04%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -11.62%E -2.94%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 14:06
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.