The School of Odds
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FK Sochi v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Sochi (Local)

Prediction 15.30%6.54fair odd
EV -0.536%
Edge -0.082%
Kelly -0.097%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.84%15.30%15.30%15.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.806.196.266.5017.24%16.16%15.97%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 62.00%1.61fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.893%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.37%62.00%62.00%62.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.541.541.5967.11%64.94%64.94%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.70%4.41fair odd
EV +0.324%
Edge +0.073%
Kelly +0.095%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.29%22.70%22.70%22.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.234.284.4225.00%23.62%23.36%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Sochi (Local): 15.30%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 62.00%; Draw: 22.70%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.324%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯6.26I 15.97%NM 15.74%EV -4.21%E -0.672%K -0.800%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.97%EV -1.42%E -0.893%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 22.29%EV +0.324%E +0.073%K +0.095%G +0.000%1.5%2026-03-02 07:59
Pinnacle🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.84%EV -0.536%E -0.082%K -0.097%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.63%EV -4.52%E -2.93%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.53%EV -2.85%E -0.667%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-02 08:00
Codere (IT)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.77%EV -11.25%E -1.94%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.37%EV -7.62%E -5.11%K -15.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.21%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-02 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.