The School of Odds
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FK Sochi v Rubin Kazan

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Sochi (Local)

Prediction 24.02%4.16fair odd
EV -0.080%
Edge -0.019%
Kelly -0.025%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.02%24.02%24.02%24.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.794.024.064.1626.39%24.88%24.60%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rubin Kazan (Visit)

Prediction 46.24%2.16fair odd
EV -4.75%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -4.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.33%46.24%46.24%48.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.012.042.0652.36%49.69%49.02%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.74%3.36fair odd
EV -0.355%
Edge -0.106%
Kelly -0.151%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%29.74%29.74%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.113.233.243.3532.15%30.91%30.86%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Sochi (Local): 24.02%; Rubin Kazan (Visit): 46.24%; Draw: 29.74%. For FK Sochi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.163. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.160, with an expected value of -0.080%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.16I 24.04%NM 23.30%EV -0.080%E -0.019%K -0.025%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.76%EV -6.14%E -3.03%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.94%EV -0.355%E -0.106%K -0.151%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-06 16:25
Pinnacle🎯4.13I 24.21%NM 23.40%EV -0.801%E -0.194%K -0.256%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.14%EV -5.22%E -2.54%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.46%EV -2.44%E -0.743%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-06 16:15
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -3.92%E -0.981%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -11.69%E -6.12%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-06 16:22
BetOnline.ag🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 24.64%EV -8.97%E -2.37%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -4.75%E -2.31%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.03%EV -7.49%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.