The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FK Sochi v Gazovik Orenburg

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 11:30 UTC

Final: FK Sochi 3–1 Gazovik Orenburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Sochi (Local)

Prediction 33.39%3.00fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -0.861%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.11%33.39%33.39%33.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.832.852.9237.04%35.34%35.09%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 39.29%2.55fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.62%39.29%39.29%39.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.412.432.4442.55%41.45%41.15%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.33%3.66fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.375%
Kelly -0.519%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.85%27.33%27.33%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.503.503.6129.41%28.57%28.61%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Sochi (Local): 33.39%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 39.29%; Draw: 27.33%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.61, with an expected value of -1.35%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.11%EV -2.51%E -0.861%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -4.92%E -2.03%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.93%EV -1.90%E -0.530%K -0.734%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-03 11:26
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42%EV -3.18%E -1.10%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.73%EV -4.13%E -1.69%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.85%EV -1.35%E -0.375%K -0.519%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 11:26
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.66%EV -6.52%E -2.33%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.62%EV -4.13%E -1.69%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.09%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:20
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -9.86%E -3.65%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -7.67%E -3.26%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -7.09%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 11:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.