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FK Sochi v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 10:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Sochi (Local)

Prediction 11.17%8.95fair odd
EV +6.45%
Edge +0.677%
Kelly +0.756%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 9.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.10%11.17%11.29%12.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.608.738.759.5313.16%11.46%11.43%10.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 70.52%1.42fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -3.01%
Kelly -11.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.71%70.52%70.47%72.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.331.331.3678.13%75.30%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.31%5.46fair odd
EV +3.43%
Edge +0.608%
Kelly +0.739%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 5.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.38%18.31%18.24%19.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.265.205.6520.83%19.02%19.23%17.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Sochi (Local): 11.17%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 70.52%; Draw: 18.31%. For FK Sochi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.95. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯9.53I 10.49%NM 10.10%EV +6.45%E +0.677%K +0.756%G +0.049%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.39%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.51%EV +0.689%E +0.125%K +0.153%G +0.001%3.9%2026-03-14 07:20
1xBet🎯9.45I 10.58%NM 10.39%EV +5.55%E +0.588%K +0.657%G +0.037%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.22%EV -4.09%E -3.01%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.38%EV +3.43%E +0.608%K +0.739%G +0.025%1.8%2026-03-14 07:19
Bovada🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.51%EV -2.26%E -0.259%K -0.292%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.82%EV -9.73%E -7.60%K -34.75%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -4.80%E -0.924%K -1.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 07:16
BetOnline.ag🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 11.29%EV -7.29%E -0.878%K -0.999%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.47%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.24%EV -5.90%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 07:19
Codere (IT)🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 12.11%EV -15.11%E -1.99%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.71%EV -5.50%E -4.10%K -16.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.18%EV -12.13%E -2.53%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 06:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.