Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Sochi v FC Akhmat Grozny

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00 UTC

Final: FK Sochi 1–1 FC Akhmat Grozny

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

33%

40%

26%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Sochi (Local)

Prediction 33.17%3.01fair odd

EV +2.16%

Edge +0.702%

Kelly +1.04%

Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.28%33.17%31.98%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.552.913.003.0839.22%34.39%33.33%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit)

Prediction 40.33%2.48fair odd

EV +0.834%

Edge +0.333%

Kelly +0.556%

Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.82%40.33%41.71%42.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.222.352.332.5045.05%42.64%42.92%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.50%3.77fair odd

EV -0.638%

Edge -0.170%

Kelly -0.232%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.98%26.50%26.32%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.403.603.633.7529.41%27.76%27.55%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Sochi (Local): 33.17%; FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit): 40.33%; Draw: 26.50%. For FK Sochi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	3.08I 32.47%NM 31.99%EV +2.16%E +0.702%K +1.04%G +0.022%	2.36I 42.37%NM 41.74%EV -4.81%E -2.04%K -3.54%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 26.27%EV -0.638%E -0.170%K -0.232%G +0.000%	1.5%	2026-05-17 10:40
Pinnacle🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.12%EV -0.490%E -0.163%K -0.245%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.90%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%	3.71I 26.95%NM 25.98%EV -1.70%E -0.458%K -0.626%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-17 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -0.490%E -0.163%K -0.245%G +0.000%	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.28%EV -10.46%E -4.71%K -8.57%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -5.94%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -15.42%E -6.05%K -9.95%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV +0.834%E +0.333%K +0.556%G +0.005%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.91%E -2.92%K -4.13%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-17 06:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.