The School of Odds
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FK Rostov v Zenit St Petersburg

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00 UTC

Final: FK Rostov 0–1 Zenit St Petersburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov (Local)

Prediction 11.73%8.53fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.167%
Kelly +0.189%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 8.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.34%11.85%11.73%12.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.408.108.228.6513.51%12.35%12.17%11.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zenit St Petersburg (Visit)

Prediction 66.72%1.50fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -5.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.20%66.57%66.72%67.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.431.4673.53%70.67%69.93%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.55%4.64fair odd
EV +0.852%
Edge +0.182%
Kelly +0.232%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.90%21.58%21.55%22.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.434.404.6823.81%22.57%22.73%21.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Rostov (Local): 11.73%; Zenit St Petersburg (Visit): 66.72%; Draw: 21.55%. For FK Rostov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯8.65I 11.56%NM 11.40%EV +1.44%E +0.167%K +0.189%G +0.003%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.53%EV -2.58%E -1.77%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 21.07%EV +0.852%E +0.182%K +0.232%G +0.002%1.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Marathon Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV -0.317%E -0.037%K -0.042%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.61%EV -4.59%E -3.21%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.02%EV -0.872%E -0.190%K -0.242%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Pinnacle🎯8.44I 11.85%NM 11.34%EV -1.02%E -0.121%K -0.137%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.92%EV -4.59%E -3.21%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.75%EV -5.18%E -1.18%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Bovada🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -6.18%E -0.773%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -9.26%E -6.81%K -25.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -5.18%E -1.18%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 12.09%EV -10.87%E -1.43%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.56%EV -7.92%E -5.74%K -20.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -7.34%E -1.71%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 06:20
BetOnline.ag🎯7.40I 13.51%NM 12.60%EV -13.22%E -1.79%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.20%EV -4.59%E -3.21%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -9.49%E -2.26%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.