Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 13:30 UTC

Final: FK Rostov 1–1 Spartak Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

33%

39%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov (Local)

Prediction 32.54%3.07fair odd

EV +2.49%

Edge +0.792%

Kelly +1.16%

Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.19%32.01%32.54%33.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.782.932.903.1535.97%34.11%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 39.18%2.55fair odd

EV +2.26%

Edge +0.867%

Kelly +1.41%

Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.57%39.83%39.18%43.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.122.432.462.6147.17%41.18%40.73%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.28%3.54fair odd

EV -2.15%

Edge -0.621%

Kelly -0.873%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.44%28.16%28.28%28.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.253.363.383.4630.77%29.73%29.54%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Rostov (Local): 32.54%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 39.18%; Draw: 28.28%. For FK Rostov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.91I 34.36%NM 33.83%EV -5.31%E -1.83%K -2.78%G +0.000%	2.61I 38.31%NM 37.72%EV +2.26%E +0.867%K +1.41%G +0.032%	3.46I 28.90%NM 28.45%EV -2.15%E -0.621%K -0.873%G +0.000%	1.6%	2026-04-12 13:10
Marathon Bet🎯	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.47%EV -5.97%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%	2.53I 39.53%NM 38.24%EV -0.872%E -0.345%K -0.570%G +0.000%	3.42I 29.24%NM 28.29%EV -3.28%E -0.959%K -1.36%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-04-12 13:10
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.78I 35.97%NM 33.79%EV -9.54%E -3.43%K -5.36%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.57%EV -2.05%E -0.819%K -1.36%G +0.000%	3.28I 30.49%NM 28.64%EV -7.24%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-04-12 13:10
Pinnacle🎯	3.06I 32.68%NM 31.60%EV -0.434%E -0.142%K -0.211%G +0.000%	2.41I 41.49%NM 40.12%EV -5.57%E -2.31%K -3.95%G +0.000%	3.42I 29.24%NM 28.27%EV -3.28%E -0.959%K -1.36%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-04-12 13:00
Bovada🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -8.89%E -3.18%K -4.94%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.09%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-04-12 13:03
Codere (IT)🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV +2.49%E +0.792%K +1.16%G +0.029%	2.12I 47.17%NM 43.37%EV -16.94%E -7.99%K -15.12%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -5.26%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-04-12 01:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.