The School of Odds
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FK Rostov v Rubin Kazan

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:30 UTC

Final: FK Rostov 1–1 Rubin Kazan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov (Local)

Prediction 45.14%2.22fair odd
EV -0.682%
Edge -0.310%
Kelly -0.568%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.97%45.37%45.14%47.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.062.062.2051.28%48.54%48.54%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rubin Kazan (Visit)

Prediction 24.02%4.16fair odd
EV +2.56%
Edge +0.600%
Kelly +0.783%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 4.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.29%23.68%24.02%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.044.034.2726.67%24.72%24.84%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.84%3.24fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.316%
Kelly -0.459%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.06%30.95%30.84%32.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.083.083.2133.33%32.45%32.52%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Rostov (Local): 45.14%; Rubin Kazan (Visit): 24.02%; Draw: 30.84%. For Rubin Kazan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 47.08%EV -7.00%E -3.40%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.71%EV +2.56%E +0.600%K +0.783%G +0.020%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.21%EV -1.02%E -0.316%K -0.459%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.52%EV -11.06%E -5.62%K -11.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV +0.879%E +0.209%K +0.275%G +0.002%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -4.41%E -1.42%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 15:24
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.97%EV -0.682%E -0.310%K -0.568%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.89%EV -2.72%E -0.672%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.14%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 15:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.26%EV -4.29%E -2.03%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.99%EV -3.92%E -0.981%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.75%EV -3.79%E -1.21%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 15:24
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.02%EV -11.97%E -6.14%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -3.92%E -0.981%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.06%EV -5.95%E -1.95%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 15:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.72%EV -7.00%E -3.40%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -9.93%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 15:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.