The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FK Rostov v Lokomotiv Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 10:45 UTC

Final: FK Rostov 2–0 Lokomotiv Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov (Local)

Prediction 40.90%2.45fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.594%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.85%40.84%40.90%41.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.292.282.4145.45%43.59%43.86%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 30.33%3.30fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.627%
Kelly -0.908%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.27%30.47%30.33%31.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.123.153.2333.33%32.02%31.75%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.77%3.48fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.472%
Kelly -0.667%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.23%28.69%28.77%29.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.293.253.4231.25%30.38%30.77%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Rostov (Local): 40.90%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 30.33%; Draw: 28.77%. For FK Rostov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.41, with an expected value of -1.43%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.85%EV -1.43%E -0.594%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV -7.18%E -2.35%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.76%EV -3.92%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-25 10:40
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.73%EV -5.11%E -2.20%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.97%EV -2.02%E -0.627%K -0.908%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.30%EV -1.62%E -0.472%K -0.667%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-25 10:40
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.35%EV -5.11%E -2.20%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.26%EV -3.84%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.38%EV -2.77%E -0.818%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -6.75%E -2.96%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -4.45%E -1.41%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -6.51%E -2.00%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-25 10:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.55%EV -7.16%E -3.15%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -9.00%E -3.00%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.94%E -2.48%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 09:55
BetUS🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.45%EV -7.57%E -3.35%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -2.93%E -0.917%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.94%E -2.48%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 10:19
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.70%EV -10.02%E -4.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -7.48%E -2.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -6.51%E -2.00%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 10:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.