The School of Odds
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FK Rostov v Gazovik Orenburg

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov (Local)

Prediction 47.15%2.12fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -0.925%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.66%47.03%47.15%47.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.992.002.0852.36%50.21%50.00%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 24.82%4.03fair odd
EV -0.953%
Edge -0.239%
Kelly -0.319%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.39%25.05%24.82%26.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.783.793.9928.99%26.43%26.35%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.02%3.57fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.385%
Kelly -0.538%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.21%27.92%28.02%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.373.353.5230.77%29.66%29.85%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Rostov (Local): 47.15%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 24.82%; Draw: 28.02%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.99, with an expected value of -0.953%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%EV -1.92%E -0.925%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.68%EV -0.953%E -0.239%K -0.319%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.98%EV -1.36%E -0.385%K -0.538%G +0.000%1.5%2026-04-23 13:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.39%EV -3.81%E -1.87%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.66%EV -2.69%E -0.686%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.94%EV -3.04%E -0.878%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 13:19
Pinnacle🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.29%EV -5.22%E -2.60%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.75%EV -4.68%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.96%EV -4.72%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 13:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.66%EV -6.17%E -3.10%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -8.92%E -2.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 13:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.77%EV -9.47%E -4.93%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.03%EV -14.36%E -4.16%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-22 14:49
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -9.94%E -5.20%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -6.91%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 13:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.