The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FK Rostov v FK Sochi

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 16:30 UTC

Final: FK Rostov 0–1 FK Sochi

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov (Local)

Prediction 63.72%1.57fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -7.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.65%63.72%63.72%65.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.461.461.5170.42%68.26%68.26%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Sochi (Visit)

Prediction 14.83%6.74fair odd
EV +4.67%
Edge +0.662%
Kelly +0.771%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 7.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.73%14.83%14.83%15.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.566.607.0616.67%15.23%15.15%14.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.46%4.66fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.426%
Kelly -0.546%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.07%21.46%21.46%21.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.414.384.5723.26%22.69%22.83%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Rostov (Local): 63.72%; FK Sochi (Visit): 14.83%; Draw: 21.46%. For FK Sochi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.06%EV -5.06%E -3.40%K -10.33%G +0.000%7.06I 14.16%NM 13.73%EV +4.67%E +0.662%K +0.771%G +0.036%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.21%EV -1.95%E -0.426%K -0.546%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-17 16:20
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.78%EV -3.79%E -2.51%K -7.42%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.38%EV -0.666%E -0.099%K -0.117%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.84%EV -5.38%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-17 16:10
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.57%EV -9.52%E -6.70%K -22.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.63%E -0.559%K -0.660%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -7.74%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-17 16:16
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.65%EV -8.25%E -5.73%K -18.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -11.04%E -1.84%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.07%EV -6.67%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-17 16:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.