The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FK Rostov v FC Fakel Voronezh

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 16:00 UTC

Final: FK Rostov 3–1 FC Fakel Voronezh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov (Local)

Prediction 50.67%1.97fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.875%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.15%50.21%50.67%51.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.861.851.9454.95%53.72%54.05%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit)

Prediction 21.06%4.75fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.352%
Kelly -0.448%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.74%21.41%21.06%22.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.414.404.6725.32%22.69%22.73%21.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.305%
Kelly -0.427%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.93%28.38%28.27%29.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.253.5032.26%30.21%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Rostov (Local): 50.67%; FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit): 21.06%; Draw: 28.27%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 50.77%EV -1.70%E -0.875%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 21.09%EV -1.64%E -0.352%K -0.448%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%EV -1.07%E -0.305%K -0.427%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-04 12:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.81%EV -4.23%E -2.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.11%EV -4.17%E -0.917%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.08%EV -3.33%E -0.973%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 12:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.15%EV -5.24%E -2.80%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV -16.81%E -4.25%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 06:30
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.33%EV -6.26%E -3.38%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.74%EV -3.54%E -0.773%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 09:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.53%EV -7.27%E -3.97%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -7.33%E -1.67%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 03:50
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.53%EV -7.27%E -3.97%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -7.33%E -1.67%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 03:45
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.42%EV -7.78%E -4.27%K -9.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -9.44%E -2.19%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 12:31
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.