Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

34%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov (Local)

Prediction 33.50%2.98fair odd

EV -1.17%

Edge -0.397%

Kelly -0.600%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.83%33.50%33.65%33.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.772.872.882.9536.10%34.81%34.66%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 34.21%2.92fair odd

EV -0.442%

Edge -0.152%

Kelly -0.232%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.82%34.21%34.17%34.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.732.832.832.9136.63%35.37%35.27%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.29%3.10fair odd

EV -1.85%

Edge -0.609%

Kelly -0.907%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.79%32.29%32.18%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.952.992.983.0433.90%33.50%33.61%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Rostov (Local): 33.50%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 34.21%; Draw: 32.29%. For FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.91, with an expected value of -0.442%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.83%EV -1.17%E -0.397%K -0.600%G +0.000%	2.81I 35.59%NM 34.46%EV -3.86%E -1.37%K -2.13%G +0.000%	2.96I 33.78%NM 32.71%EV -4.43%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-03-07 13:20
1xBet🎯	2.91I 34.36%NM 33.82%EV -2.51%E -0.863%K -1.31%G +0.000%	2.91I 34.36%NM 33.82%EV -0.442%E -0.152%K -0.232%G +0.000%	3.04I 32.89%NM 32.37%EV -1.85%E -0.609%K -0.907%G +0.000%	1.6%	2026-03-07 13:20
Marathon Bet🎯	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.82%EV -4.18%E -1.46%K -2.25%G +0.000%	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.82%EV -2.15%E -0.753%K -1.16%G +0.000%	2.99I 33.44%NM 32.35%EV -3.46%E -1.16%K -1.74%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-03-07 13:19
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.77I 36.10%NM 33.86%EV -7.20%E -2.60%K -4.07%G +0.000%	2.73I 36.63%NM 34.35%EV -6.60%E -2.42%K -3.82%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%EV -4.76%E -1.61%K -2.44%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-07 13:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.