The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FK Rostov v FC Akron Tolyatti

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 16:30 UTC

Final: FK Rostov 1–0 FC Akron Tolyatti

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov (Local)

Prediction 51.90%1.93fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -4.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.28%51.90%51.90%53.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.791.791.8657.47%55.79%56.02%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 22.28%4.49fair odd
EV +1.83%
Edge +0.401%
Kelly +0.513%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 4.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.58%22.28%22.28%22.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.274.264.5725.00%23.41%23.47%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.82%3.87fair odd
EV +0.186%
Edge +0.048%
Kelly +0.065%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.41%25.82%25.82%26.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.673.673.8828.99%27.29%27.29%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Rostov (Local): 51.90%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 22.28%; Draw: 25.82%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 53.01%EV -3.47%E -1.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.58%EV +1.83%E +0.401%K +0.513%G +0.009%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.41%EV +0.186%E +0.048%K +0.065%G +0.000%1.4%2026-09-29 12:35
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.51%EV -6.07%E -3.35%K -7.49%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.00%EV -3.74%E -0.866%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.48%EV -3.69%E -0.989%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-29 12:35
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.70%EV -9.70%E -5.57%K -13.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -6.41%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -7.04%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-29 12:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.28%EV -8.66%E -4.92%K -11.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.87%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -10.92%E -3.16%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-04 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.