The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FK Rostov v Dinamo Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-09-17 15:30 UTC

Final: FK Rostov 0–3 Dinamo Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov (Local)

Prediction 24.83%4.03fair odd
EV +1.30%
Edge +0.318%
Kelly +0.421%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.51%24.94%24.83%25.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.863.854.0828.17%25.89%25.97%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 47.37%2.11fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.90%47.25%47.37%48.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.981.982.0452.36%50.40%50.51%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.80%3.60fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.530%
Kelly -0.739%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.40%27.81%27.80%28.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.393.403.5330.77%29.47%29.41%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Rostov (Local): 24.83%; Dinamo Moscow (Visit): 47.37%; Draw: 27.80%. For FK Rostov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.08I 24.51%NM 23.51%EV +1.30%E +0.318%K +0.421%G +0.005%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -6.20%E -3.13%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.05%EV -4.93%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-17 15:25
Pinnacle🎯3.99I 25.06%NM 24.24%EV -0.936%E -0.235%K -0.313%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.36%EV -5.25%E -2.63%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.40%EV -1.87%E -0.530%K -0.739%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-17 15:15
Bovada🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -3.17%E -0.813%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -9.52%E -4.98%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -8.26%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-17 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV -4.41%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.70%EV -6.20%E -3.13%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -5.48%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 15:26
BetUS🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.53%EV -4.41%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.70%EV -6.20%E -3.13%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -5.48%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.82I 26.18%NM 25.13%EV -5.16%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.05%EV -3.36%E -1.65%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -4.09%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-17 15:25
Codere (IT)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -11.86%E -3.34%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -5.25%E -2.63%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.65%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-17 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.