Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov v Dinamo Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 15:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

33%

39%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FK Rostov (Local)

Prediction 32.69%3.06fair odd

EV -1.28%

Edge -0.425%

Kelly -0.636%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.04%32.69%32.37%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.792.932.993.0235.84%34.13%33.44%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 39.11%2.56fair odd

EV -3.80%

Edge -1.54%

Kelly -2.60%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.48%39.11%39.34%39.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.422.442.4643.48%41.36%40.98%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.21%3.55fair odd

EV -2.41%

Edge -0.695%

Kelly -0.978%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.83%28.21%28.30%28.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.393.403.4630.30%29.50%29.41%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FK Rostov (Local): 32.69%; Dinamo Moscow (Visit): 39.11%; Draw: 28.21%. For FK Rostov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.02, with an expected value of -1.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	3.02I 33.11%NM 32.04%EV -1.28%E -0.425%K -0.636%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.50%EV -4.19%E -1.71%K -2.89%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.46%EV -4.10%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-03-14 15:09
1xBet🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.29%EV -1.94%E -0.646%K -0.969%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.71%EV -4.58%E -1.88%K -3.18%G +0.000%	3.46I 28.90%NM 28.00%EV -2.41%E -0.695%K -0.978%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-03-14 15:05
Pinnacle🎯	2.99I 33.44%NM 32.37%EV -2.26%E -0.757%K -1.14%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 39.34%EV -3.80%E -1.54%K -2.60%G +0.000%	3.42I 29.24%NM 28.30%EV -3.53%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-03-14 14:50
Bovada🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -6.84%E -2.40%K -3.70%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -10.06%E -4.37%K -7.74%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.92%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-03-14 15:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.79I 35.84%NM 33.65%EV -8.80%E -3.15%K -4.92%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 38.48%EV -4.58%E -1.88%K -3.18%G +0.000%	3.37I 29.67%NM 27.86%EV -4.94%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-14 14:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.