The School of Odds
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FC Nizhny Novgorod v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Nizhny Novgorod (Local)

Prediction 16.80%5.95fair odd
EV -0.057%
Edge -0.010%
Kelly -0.011%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.55%16.80%16.74%17.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.565.405.9518.52%17.99%18.52%16.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 60.33%1.66fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -4.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.03%60.33%60.30%61.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.541.531.6167.11%64.94%65.36%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.88%4.37fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.253%
Kelly +0.327%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.28%22.88%22.96%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.124.104.4225.64%24.27%24.39%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Nizhny Novgorod (Local): 16.80%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 60.33%; Draw: 22.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.95I 16.81%NM 16.55%EV -0.057%E -0.010%K -0.011%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.17%EV -2.88%E -1.79%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 22.28%EV +1.12%E +0.253%K +0.327%G +0.004%1.5%2026-04-23 21:59
Pinnacle🎯5.65I 17.70%NM 16.74%EV -5.10%E -0.902%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.63%EV -5.89%E -3.78%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.63%EV -4.37%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 22:00
Bovada🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.97%EV -9.30%E -1.72%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.68%EV -8.91%E -5.90%K -17.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -6.20%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 22:07
BetOnline.ag🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -9.30%E -1.72%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -7.70%E -5.03%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -8.49%E -2.12%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 21:50
Codere (IT)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.64%EV -9.30%E -1.72%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.31%EV -10.12%E -6.79%K -20.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.04%EV -10.78%E -2.76%K -3.72%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-23 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.