The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Nizhny Novgorod v Kryliya Sovetov

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Nizhny Novgorod (Local)

Prediction 42.13%2.37fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.793%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.53%42.13%42.13%42.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.262.262.3345.45%44.15%44.15%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kryliya Sovetov (Visit)

Prediction 27.49%3.64fair odd
EV -0.489%
Edge -0.135%
Kelly -0.187%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.74%27.49%27.49%29.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.363.343.6231.75%29.74%29.94%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.39%3.29fair odd
EV +0.273%
Edge +0.083%
Kelly +0.119%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.40%30.39%30.39%30.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.173.143.3032.26%31.55%31.85%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Nizhny Novgorod (Local): 42.13%; Kryliya Sovetov (Visit): 27.49%; Draw: 30.39%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.273%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.64%EV -1.85%E -0.793%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.96%EV -7.91%E -2.36%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.40%EV +0.273%E +0.083%K +0.119%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-15 13:15
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.64%EV -4.38%E -1.93%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.74%EV -0.489%E -0.135%K -0.187%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.63%EV -3.98%E -1.26%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-15 13:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.61%EV -4.80%E -2.12%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.24%EV -8.46%E -2.54%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.14%EV -5.20%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 13:05
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.53%EV -7.32%E -3.33%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -13.41%E -4.26%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -5.80%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-15 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.