The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Nizhny Novgorod v FK Rostov

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Nizhny Novgorod (Local)

Prediction 30.16%3.32fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.705%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.92%30.16%30.16%30.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.093.163.143.2432.36%31.68%31.85%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 38.95%2.57fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.50%38.95%38.95%39.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.442.462.462.4840.98%40.65%40.65%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.89%3.24fair odd
EV +0.083%
Edge +0.026%
Kelly +0.037%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.96%30.89%30.89%31.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.023.143.163.2433.11%31.85%31.65%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Nizhny Novgorod (Local): 30.16%; FK Rostov (Visit): 38.95%; Draw: 30.89%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.237. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.240, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.083%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 30.91%EV -5.30%E -1.69%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.14%EV -3.40%E -1.37%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.96%EV +0.083%E +0.026%K +0.037%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-05 10:49
Pinnacle🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.92%EV -2.29%E -0.705%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.41%EV -4.18%E -1.70%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.68%EV -2.39%E -0.756%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-05 10:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.40%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.50%EV -4.96%E -2.03%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.10%EV -6.71%E -2.22%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-05 10:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.