The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Nizhny Novgorod v Dinamo Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 16:30 UTC

Final: FC Nizhny Novgorod 1–1 Dinamo Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Nizhny Novgorod (Local)

Prediction 19.02%5.26fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -0.588%
Kelly -0.731%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.91%19.02%19.02%20.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.794.904.855.1020.88%20.42%20.62%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 56.94%1.76fair odd
EV -0.929%
Edge -0.534%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.87%56.94%56.94%57.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.671.7462.50%59.88%59.88%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.04%4.16fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.467%
Kelly -0.619%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.53%24.04%24.04%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.903.973.964.0825.64%25.17%25.28%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Nizhny Novgorod (Local): 19.02%; Dinamo Moscow (Visit): 56.94%; Draw: 24.04%. For Dinamo Moscow (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -0.929%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.91%EV -3.00%E -0.588%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.05%EV -3.78%E -2.23%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.04%EV -3.59%E -0.895%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-18 16:20
BetOnline.ag🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -6.80%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -6.05%E -3.67%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -6.23%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-18 16:05
Bovada🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -8.70%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -8.90%E -5.56%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -6.23%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 16:15
1xBet🎯4.79I 20.88%NM 20.30%EV -8.89%E -1.86%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.87%EV -0.929%E -0.534%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.83%EV -1.91%E -0.467%K -0.619%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-18 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.