Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Nizhny Novgorod v CSKA Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-05-11 12:15 UTC

Final: FC Nizhny Novgorod 1–2 CSKA Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

30%

42%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Nizhny Novgorod (Local)

Prediction 29.53%3.39fair odd

EV -0.771%

Edge -0.230%

Kelly -0.327%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.74%29.53%29.45%29.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.233.203.3632.26%31.00%31.25%29.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CSKA Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 42.24%2.37fair odd

EV -2.42%

Edge -1.05%

Kelly -1.85%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.63%42.24%42.28%43.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.222.262.3147.62%45.05%44.25%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.23%3.54fair odd

EV -1.21%

Edge -0.346%

Kelly -0.484%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.46%28.23%28.27%28.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.373.353.5030.30%29.66%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Nizhny Novgorod (Local): 29.53%; CSKA Moscow (Visit): 42.24%; Draw: 28.23%. For FC Nizhny Novgorod (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.36, with an expected value of -0.771%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	3.36I 29.76%NM 29.29%EV -0.771%E -0.230%K -0.327%G +0.000%	2.31I 43.29%NM 42.60%EV -2.42%E -1.05%K -1.85%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 28.12%EV -1.21%E -0.346%K -0.484%G +0.000%	1.6%	2026-05-11 09:39
Pinnacle🎯	3.32I 30.12%NM 29.16%EV -1.95%E -0.588%K -0.842%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 42.46%EV -3.69%E -1.62%K -2.88%G +0.000%	3.41I 29.33%NM 28.39%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-05-11 09:39
Bovada🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -5.50%E -1.72%K -2.50%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -11.29%E -5.38%K -10.27%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -5.44%E -1.62%K -2.32%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-10 21:28
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -6.97%E -2.21%K -3.24%G +0.000%	2.26I 44.25%NM 41.63%EV -4.53%E -2.01%K -3.60%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-11 09:19
Codere (IT)🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.45%E -2.73%K -4.02%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -9.18%E -4.27%K -7.98%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-05-11 04:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.