The School of Odds
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FC Krasnodar v Zenit St Petersburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 16:30 UTC

Final: FC Krasnodar 2–3 Zenit St Petersburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Krasnodar (Local)

Prediction 31.62%3.16fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -0.738%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.27%31.62%31.36%32.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.983.003.0935.09%33.58%33.33%32.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zenit St Petersburg (Visit)

Prediction 39.30%2.54fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.98%39.30%39.45%39.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.382.382.4543.48%41.96%42.02%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.07%3.44fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -0.957%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.61%29.07%29.19%29.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.243.203.3331.25%30.85%31.25%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Krasnodar (Local): 31.62%; Zenit St Petersburg (Visit): 39.30%; Draw: 29.07%. For FC Krasnodar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.09, with an expected value of -2.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 31.33%EV -2.28%E -0.738%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -3.71%E -1.51%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.16%EV -3.48%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-10 16:15
1xBet🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.68%EV -4.18%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.50%EV -4.50%E -1.85%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.82%EV -3.19%E -0.957%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 16:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.13%E -1.71%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.46%E -2.71%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 16:05
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.13%E -1.71%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.46%E -2.71%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 16:05
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.29%E -2.86%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.61%E -4.18%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-10 16:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -9.87%E -3.46%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.98%EV -7.25%E -3.07%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.75%EV -6.97%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.