The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Krasnodar v Gazovik Orenburg

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00 UTC

Final: FC Krasnodar 3–0 Gazovik Orenburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Krasnodar (Local)

Prediction 74.23%1.35fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -2.70%
Kelly -11.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.15%73.80%74.23%75.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3081.97%78.64%78.43%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 10.01%9.99fair odd
EV +9.16%
Edge +0.840%
Kelly +0.925%
Growth +0.085%

assuming max odds 10.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.99%10.06%10.01%11.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.209.7910.0510.9012.20%10.21%9.95%9.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.76%6.35fair odd
EV +0.222%
Edge +0.035%
Kelly +0.041%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.37%16.14%15.76%17.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.205.936.006.3619.23%16.87%16.65%15.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Krasnodar (Local): 74.23%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 10.01%; Draw: 15.76%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.99. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 75.55%EV -3.50%E -2.70%K -11.68%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 9.01%EV +9.16%E +0.840%K +0.925%G +0.085%6.36I 15.72%NM 15.44%EV +0.222%E +0.035%K +0.041%G +0.000%1.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.54%EV -4.99%E -3.90%K -17.82%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.99%EV +7.66%E +0.712%K +0.785%G +0.060%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.47%EV -1.51%E -0.242%K -0.288%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Pinnacle🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.17%EV -5.73%E -4.51%K -21.23%G +0.000%10.10I 9.90%NM 9.45%EV +1.15%E +0.114%K +0.126%G +0.001%6.21I 16.10%NM 15.37%EV -2.14%E -0.345%K -0.411%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -9.44%E -7.74%K -42.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV +0.145%E +0.014%K +0.016%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -9.39%E -1.63%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.35%EV -5.73%E -4.51%K -21.23%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -11.87%E -1.35%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -8.60%E -1.48%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.15%EV -4.25%E -3.29%K -14.64%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.19%EV -17.88%E -2.18%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -18.06%E -3.47%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 06:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.