The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Krasnodar v FK Rostov

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:30 UTC

Final: FC Krasnodar 1–0 FK Rostov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Krasnodar (Local)

Prediction 56.58%1.77fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.81%56.58%56.58%57.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.661.671.7262.50%60.09%59.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 18.56%5.39fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.307%
Kelly -0.379%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.28%18.67%18.56%19.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.105.105.3020.41%19.61%19.61%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.86%4.02fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.263%
Kelly -0.352%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.18%24.76%24.86%25.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.833.843.9827.40%26.08%26.04%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Krasnodar (Local): 56.58%; FK Rostov (Visit): 18.56%; Draw: 24.86%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.98, with an expected value of -1.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.81%EV -2.69%E -1.56%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.20%EV -7.20%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.00%EV -4.53%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 14:25
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.00%EV -3.82%E -2.25%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.28%EV -1.63%E -0.307%K -0.379%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.72%EV -2.54%E -0.648%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 14:25
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.40%EV -4.95%E -2.95%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.37%EV -2.56%E -0.487%K -0.601%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.23%EV -1.05%E -0.263%K -0.352%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-29 14:10
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.88%EV -5.52%E -3.30%K -8.23%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.45%EV -4.41%E -0.857%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.67%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.89%EV -6.65%E -4.03%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -5.34%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 14:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.20%EV -7.78%E -4.77%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -9.05%E -1.85%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.25%E -2.53%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 14:25
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -9.48%E -5.92%K -15.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -7.20%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 14:23
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.