The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Krasnodar v FC Nizhny Novgorod

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 15:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Krasnodar (Local)

Prediction 75.74%1.32fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -10.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.82%75.74%75.74%76.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.251.2881.97%80.00%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit)

Prediction 8.34%11.99fair odd
EV +3.99%
Edge +0.320%
Kelly +0.347%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 12.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.68%8.34%8.34%9.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.0910.9512.4710.00%9.02%9.13%8.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.92%6.28fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.235%
Kelly -0.281%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.66%15.92%15.92%16.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.755.965.956.1917.39%16.78%16.81%16.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Krasnodar (Local): 75.74%; FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit): 8.34%; Draw: 15.92%. For FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.99. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.66%EV -5.32%E -4.26%K -21.29%G +0.000%12.47I 8.02%NM 7.68%EV +3.99%E +0.320%K +0.347%G +0.014%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.66%EV -2.57%E -0.420%K -0.502%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-21 14:50
1xBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.87%EV -3.05%E -2.38%K -10.90%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.44%EV -4.10%E -0.357%K -0.391%G +0.000%6.19I 16.16%NM 15.69%EV -1.46%E -0.235%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-21 15:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.82%EV -5.32%E -4.26%K -21.29%G +0.000%10.40I 9.62%NM 8.99%EV -13.28%E -1.28%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.78I 17.30%NM 16.18%EV -7.98%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 15:09
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -7.60%E -6.23%K -34.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -16.61%E -1.66%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -8.46%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 15:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.