The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Krasnodar v FC Fakel Voronezh

Kickoff: 2026-08-02 15:15 UTC

Final: FC Krasnodar 3–2 FC Fakel Voronezh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Krasnodar (Local)

Prediction 68.46%1.46fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -8.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.66%68.34%68.46%71.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.371.4176.92%73.26%72.99%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit)

Prediction 10.97%9.12fair odd
EV +12.95%
Edge +1.26%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.180%

assuming max odds 10.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.40%11.09%10.97%11.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.809.038.9810.3012.82%11.07%11.14%9.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.58%4.86fair odd
EV +2.67%
Edge +0.536%
Kelly +0.670%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 4.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.40%20.57%20.58%21.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.684.674.9922.73%21.38%21.44%20.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Krasnodar (Local): 68.46%; FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit): 10.97%; Draw: 20.58%. For FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.12. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.20%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.16%G +0.000%10.30I 9.71%NM 9.40%EV +12.95%E +1.26%K +1.39%G +0.180%4.99I 20.04%NM 19.40%EV +2.67%E +0.536%K +0.670%G +0.018%3.3%2026-08-02 15:04
Bovada🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.93%EV -11.00%E -8.47%K -36.68%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.46%EV +6.92%E +0.710%K +0.791%G +0.055%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -3.29%E -0.701%K -0.890%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 15:06
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.10%EV -4.84%E -3.48%K -12.42%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.67%EV -1.30%E -0.145%K -0.163%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.22%EV -2.27%E -0.477%K -0.604%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 15:10
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.40%EV -3.47%E -2.46%K -8.47%G +0.000%8.96I 11.16%NM 10.76%EV -1.74%E -0.194%K -0.219%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.83%EV -4.73%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-02 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.66%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.55%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.12%EV -7.88%E -0.938%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -9.47%E -2.15%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 15:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.19%EV -7.58%E -5.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.80%EV -14.46%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -5.35%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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