The School of Odds
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FC Krasnodar v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Krasnodar (Local)

Prediction 69.53%1.44fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -6.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.64%69.49%69.53%70.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.351.351.4076.34%74.26%74.35%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 11.02%9.08fair odd
EV +5.21%
Edge +0.545%
Kelly +0.609%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 9.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.29%11.02%11.02%11.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.808.728.789.5512.82%11.47%11.39%10.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.45%5.14fair odd
EV -0.010%
Edge -0.002%
Kelly -0.002%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.14%19.49%19.45%20.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.854.865.1422.22%20.62%20.60%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Krasnodar (Local): 69.53%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 11.02%; Draw: 19.45%. For FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.08. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 70.47%EV -2.66%E -1.90%K -6.64%G +0.000%9.55I 10.47%NM 10.33%EV +5.21%E +0.545%K +0.609%G +0.032%5.14I 19.46%NM 19.20%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%1.4%2026-04-23 21:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.57%EV -4.74%E -3.46%K -12.82%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.29%EV +3.56%E +0.378%K +0.423%G +0.015%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.14%EV -1.76%E -0.349%K -0.435%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 21:45
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.02%EV -6.13%E -4.54%K -17.53%G +0.000%8.81I 11.35%NM 10.73%EV -2.94%E -0.334%K -0.377%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.25%EV -4.48%E -0.913%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 21:45
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%EV -8.92%E -6.81%K -28.76%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.52%EV -3.60%E -0.412%K -0.465%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.18%EV -6.62%E -1.38%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 21:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.74%EV -8.92%E -6.81%K -28.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.26%EV -11.87%E -1.48%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -12.46%E -2.77%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-23 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.64%EV -6.83%E -5.10%K -20.09%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.79%EV -14.07%E -1.80%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -8.57%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-24 02:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.