The School of Odds
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FC Krasnodar v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 16:30 UTC

Final: FC Krasnodar 2–2 FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Krasnodar (Local)

Prediction 62.79%1.59fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -7.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.90%62.79%62.85%63.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.511.521.5368.49%66.31%65.79%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 15.21%6.57fair odd
EV +2.23%
Edge +0.332%
Kelly +0.390%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 6.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.40%15.21%15.14%15.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.906.316.356.7216.95%15.84%15.75%14.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.00%4.55fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.475%
Kelly -0.613%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.73%22.00%22.01%22.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.334.374.4523.81%23.12%22.88%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Krasnodar (Local): 62.79%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 15.21%; Draw: 22.00%. For FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.57. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.72, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.66%EV -4.56%E -3.00%K -8.77%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.40%EV +2.23%E +0.332%K +0.390%G +0.009%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.94%EV -2.99%E -0.679%K -0.878%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-19 16:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.62%EV -4.56%E -3.00%K -8.77%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.65%EV +0.403%E +0.061%K +0.072%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.73%EV -2.11%E -0.475%K -0.613%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-19 16:24
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.85%EV -3.93%E -2.57%K -7.42%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.14%EV -3.40%E -0.535%K -0.635%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.01%EV -3.87%E -0.886%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-19 16:15
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.86%EV -8.33%E -5.70%K -18.10%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -8.72%E -1.45%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 16:22
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.90%EV -5.19%E -3.43%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.84%EV -10.25%E -1.74%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.