The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Krasnodar v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 16:30 UTC

Final: FC Krasnodar 1–1 FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Krasnodar (Local)

Prediction 52.05%1.92fair odd
EV -4.75%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -5.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.08%52.18%52.05%53.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.811.821.8356.82%55.29%54.95%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 20.00%5.00fair odd
EV +2.59%
Edge +0.505%
Kelly +0.628%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 5.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.81%19.92%20.00%20.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.774.705.1322.73%20.97%21.28%19.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.95%3.58fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.620%
Kelly -0.868%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.46%27.91%27.95%28.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.373.353.5030.77%29.69%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Krasnodar (Local): 52.05%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 20.00%; Draw: 27.95%. For FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.13, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.31%EV -5.79%E -3.20%K -7.15%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.81%EV +2.59%E +0.505%K +0.628%G +0.016%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.89%EV -3.29%E -0.950%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 16:20
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.50%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.41%EV -1.01%E -0.203%K -0.255%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.09%EV -4.40%E -1.29%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 16:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.52%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.02%EV -4.01%E -0.835%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -2.17%E -0.620%K -0.868%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 06:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.80%EV -5.27%E -2.90%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -6.01%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.36%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 16:20
BetUS🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.80%EV -5.27%E -2.90%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -6.01%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.36%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 16:15
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.19%EV -8.39%E -4.77%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -6.01%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 16:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.08%EV -6.83%E -3.82%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -12.01%E -2.73%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 16:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.