The School of Odds
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FC Krasnodar v FC Akron Tolyatti

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 16:30 UTC

Final: FC Krasnodar 1–1 FC Akron Tolyatti

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Krasnodar (Local)

Prediction 67.28%1.49fair odd
EV -4.46%
Edge -3.14%
Kelly -10.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.10%67.28%67.69%68.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.391.391.4273.53%71.94%71.94%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 13.15%7.61fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.368%
Kelly -0.426%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.59%13.15%12.92%13.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.607.167.397.4015.15%13.97%13.53%13.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.57%5.11fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -0.588%
Kelly -0.737%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.33%19.57%19.39%19.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.804.804.9621.74%20.83%20.83%20.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Krasnodar (Local): 67.28%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 13.15%; Draw: 19.57%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 7.40, with an expected value of -2.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.65%EV -4.46%E -3.14%K -10.62%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.98%EV -2.72%E -0.368%K -0.426%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.37%EV -2.92%E -0.588%K -0.737%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-13 16:20
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.74%EV -5.13%E -3.64%K -12.52%G +0.000%7.39I 13.53%NM 12.92%EV -2.86%E -0.386%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.94I 20.24%NM 19.33%EV -3.31%E -0.670%K -0.840%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-13 16:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.10%EV -6.48%E -4.66%K -16.61%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.92%EV -13.24%E -2.01%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -9.97%E -2.17%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 16:21
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.00%EV -7.82%E -5.71%K -21.15%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.59%EV -2.72%E -0.368%K -0.426%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -6.05%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:25
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.40%EV -8.50%E -6.25%K -23.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -7.98%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -8.01%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 16:22
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.