The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Krasnodar v FC Akhmat Grozny

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 17:45 UTC

Final: FC Krasnodar 1–0 FC Akhmat Grozny

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Krasnodar (Local)

Prediction 60.39%1.66fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -5.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.26%60.42%60.39%61.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.561.6066.67%64.31%63.90%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit)

Prediction 16.76%5.97fair odd
EV +2.39%
Edge +0.391%
Kelly +0.468%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 6.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.85%16.69%16.76%17.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.765.806.1118.52%17.36%17.24%16.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.85%4.38fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.348%
Kelly -0.453%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.44%22.90%22.85%23.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.164.134.3125.00%24.07%24.18%23.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Krasnodar (Local): 60.39%; FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit): 16.76%; Draw: 22.85%. For FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.97. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.11, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.68%EV -5.19%E -3.31%K -9.11%G +0.000%6.11I 16.37%NM 15.85%EV +2.39%E +0.391%K +0.468%G +0.011%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.47%EV -1.50%E -0.348%K -0.453%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 17:38
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.54%EV -5.79%E -3.71%K -10.35%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.87%EV +1.38%E +0.229%K +0.274%G +0.004%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -2.87%E -0.675%K -0.883%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 17:39
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.34%EV -3.38%E -2.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.50%EV -1.97%E -0.336%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.15%EV -4.70%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 17:30
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -9.42%E -6.28%K -18.84%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -3.64%E -0.634%K -0.767%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 17:38
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.26%EV -4.59%E -2.90%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -9.51%E -1.76%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%EV -8.58%E -2.15%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 17:34
Codere (IT)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.52%EV -8.21%E -5.40%K -15.79%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.04%EV -9.51%E -1.76%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.44%EV -6.30%E -1.54%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 17:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.