The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Fakel Voronezh v Zenit St Petersburg

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 12:00 UTC

Final: FC Fakel Voronezh 0–1 Zenit St Petersburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Fakel Voronezh (Local)

Prediction 18.66%5.36fair odd
EV +3.96%
Edge +0.710%
Kelly +0.866%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 5.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.40%18.87%18.66%19.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.085.055.5721.74%19.68%19.80%17.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zenit St Petersburg (Visit)

Prediction 53.86%1.86fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.34%53.62%53.86%55.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.741.751.7959.52%57.61%57.14%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.47%3.64fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.617%
Kelly -0.857%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.00%27.52%27.47%27.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.433.403.5630.30%29.14%29.41%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Fakel Voronezh (Local): 18.66%; Zenit St Petersburg (Visit): 53.86%; Draw: 27.47%. For FC Fakel Voronezh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.57I 17.95%NM 17.40%EV +3.96%E +0.710%K +0.866%G +0.034%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.38%EV -5.74%E -3.28%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.22%EV -2.19%E -0.617%K -0.857%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 11:55
Pinnacle🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.19%EV -1.08%E -0.204%K -0.252%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.17%EV -4.12%E -2.32%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.63%EV -4.12%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-29 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 19.03%EV -5.75%E -1.14%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.68%EV -3.59%E -2.00%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.30%EV -3.29%E -0.936%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 11:55
BetUS🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 18.39%EV -5.75%E -1.14%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.30%EV -7.89%E -4.62%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -6.59%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 11:55
Bovada🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -6.68%E -1.34%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.64%EV -9.51%E -5.66%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -6.59%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 11:54
BetOnline.ag🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.34%EV -6.68%E -1.34%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.27%EV -8.97%E -5.31%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -7.96%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 11:55
Codere (IT)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -14.15%E -3.08%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -5.74%E -3.28%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -9.34%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.