The School of Odds
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FC Fakel Voronezh v Rodina Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 12:00 UTC

Final: FC Fakel Voronezh 0–1 Rodina Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Fakel Voronezh (Local)

Prediction 43.32%2.31fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.10%43.14%43.32%44.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.182.182.2347.62%45.87%45.87%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rodina Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 28.35%3.53fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -0.720%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.90%28.64%28.35%30.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.303.333.4432.79%30.33%30.08%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.33%3.53fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.574%
Kelly -0.807%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.76%28.22%28.33%28.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.363.343.4630.30%29.75%29.90%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Fakel Voronezh (Local): 43.32%; Rodina Moscow (Visit): 28.35%; Draw: 28.33%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.46, with an expected value of -1.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.36%EV -3.39%E -1.52%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.11%EV -2.48%E -0.720%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.53%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 11:45
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.51%EV -4.26%E -1.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.70%EV -5.03%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.79%EV -1.99%E -0.574%K -0.807%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.03%EV -5.56%E -2.55%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.90%EV -2.48%E -0.720%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.07%EV -3.12%E -0.912%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 11:31
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -5.56%E -2.55%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 11:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.10%EV -5.56%E -2.55%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -13.53%E -4.44%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 11:50
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -9.02%E -4.30%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.28%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 11:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.