Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Fakel Voronezh v Lokomotiv Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:15 UTC

Final: FC Fakel Voronezh 0–5 Lokomotiv Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

33%

38%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Fakel Voronezh (Local)

Prediction 33.21%3.01fair odd

EV -0.374%

Edge -0.125%

Kelly -0.187%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.76%33.21%32.87%34.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.652.862.903.0037.74%35.01%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 37.51%2.67fair odd

EV -2.09%

Edge -0.801%

Kelly -1.30%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.93%37.51%37.80%37.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.442.512.522.6140.98%39.81%39.68%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.28%3.42fair odd

EV -1.92%

Edge -0.572%

Kelly -0.816%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.07%29.28%29.33%29.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.213.253.3532.26%31.13%30.77%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Fakel Voronezh (Local): 33.21%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 37.51%; Draw: 29.28%. For FC Fakel Voronezh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -0.374%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.84%EV -0.374%E -0.125%K -0.187%G +0.000%	2.61I 38.31%NM 37.75%EV -2.09%E -0.801%K -1.30%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%EV -1.92%E -0.572%K -0.816%G +0.000%	1.5%	2026-09-29 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯	2.93I 34.13%NM 32.76%EV -2.70%E -0.921%K -1.40%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.79%EV -4.72%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%	3.26I 30.67%NM 29.45%EV -4.55%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-29 14:09
Pinnacle🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -3.69%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.82%EV -5.47%E -2.17%K -3.60%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-29 14:10
Bovada🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -8.09%E -3.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-29 14:17
Codere (IT)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%EV -12.00%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 36.93%EV -8.47%E -3.47%K -5.88%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-10-05 12:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.