Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Fakel Voronezh v Lokomotiv Moscow

2026-10-10 12:15 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

33%

38%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Fakel Voronezh (Local)

Prediction 32.81%3.05fair odd

EV -1.57%

Edge -0.522%

Kelly -0.783%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.76%32.81%32.81%32.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.802.912.923.0035.71%34.39%34.31%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 37.80%2.65fair odd

EV -1.33%

Edge -0.510%

Kelly -0.826%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.52%37.80%37.80%37.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.452.532.532.6140.82%39.53%39.53%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.38%3.40fair odd

EV -1.56%

Edge -0.467%

Kelly -0.665%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.32%29.38%29.38%29.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.243.253.3532.26%30.86%30.72%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Fakel Voronezh (Local): 32.81%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 37.80%; Draw: 29.38%. For Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.61, with an expected value of -1.33%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.84%EV -1.57%E -0.522%K -0.783%G +0.000%	2.61I 38.31%NM 37.75%EV -1.33%E -0.510%K -0.826%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%EV -1.56%E -0.467%K -0.665%G +0.000%	1.5%	2026-09-29 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯	2.93I 34.13%NM 32.76%EV -3.86%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.79%EV -3.98%E -1.57%K -2.58%G +0.000%	3.26I 30.67%NM 29.45%EV -4.21%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-29 14:09
Pinnacle🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -4.85%E -1.67%K -2.55%G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.82%EV -4.73%E -1.88%K -3.11%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -4.50%E -1.39%K -2.00%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-29 14:10
Bovada🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -8.13%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.91%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-29 14:17

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.