The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Fakel Voronezh v Gazovik Orenburg

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 12:30 UTC

Final: FC Fakel Voronezh 0–0 Gazovik Orenburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Fakel Voronezh (Local)

Prediction 38.48%2.60fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.64%38.43%38.48%39.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.452.482.5042.55%40.75%40.32%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 31.87%3.14fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.491%
Kelly -0.725%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.40%31.84%31.87%32.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.982.953.0935.09%33.61%33.90%32.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.65%3.37fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.470%
Kelly -0.673%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.15%29.72%29.65%30.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.183.153.3232.26%31.42%31.75%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Fakel Voronezh (Local): 38.48%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 31.87%; Draw: 29.65%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.09, with an expected value of -1.52%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%EV -3.80%E -1.52%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.09%EV -5.98%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%EV -6.60%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 12:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.64%EV -3.80%E -1.52%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.01%EV -6.30%E -2.14%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 12:25
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.12%EV -4.57%E -1.84%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.40%EV -1.52%E -0.491%K -0.725%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.49%EV -2.45%E -0.745%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-22 12:19
Pinnacle🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.02%EV -4.57%E -1.84%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.83%EV -3.11%E -1.02%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.15%EV -1.56%E -0.470%K -0.673%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-22 12:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.75%EV -4.57%E -1.84%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.41%EV -2.47%E -0.808%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.84%EV -4.53%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 12:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.32%EV -8.04%E -3.36%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -9.17%E -3.22%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 11:59
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -9.58%E -4.08%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -7.57%E -2.61%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -8.08%E -2.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 12:22
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.