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FC Fakel Voronezh v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 15:30 UTC

Final: FC Fakel Voronezh 1–2 FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Fakel Voronezh (Local)

Prediction 37.14%2.69fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.453%
Kelly -0.726%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.20%37.14%36.98%37.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.552.562.6640.82%39.15%39.06%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 28.29%3.53fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.693%
Kelly -0.976%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.35%28.29%28.31%30.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.353.4533.33%30.58%29.85%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.57%2.89fair odd
EV +5.08%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +2.49%
Growth +0.127%

assuming max odds 3.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.94%34.57%34.71%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.682.842.853.0437.31%35.19%35.09%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Fakel Voronezh (Local): 37.14%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 28.29%; Draw: 34.57%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.63%EV -4.18%E -1.62%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.43%EV -9.75%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.94%EV +5.08%E +1.67%K +2.49%G +0.127%3.0%2026-07-25 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.78%EV -4.92%E -1.92%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -5.22%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.35%EV +0.244%E +0.084%K +0.128%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-25 15:25
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -9.01%E -3.68%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -15.12%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -1.48%E -0.521%K -0.803%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 15:20
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.20%EV -1.21%E -0.453%K -0.726%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.66%EV -4.94%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.14%EV -5.29%E -1.93%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-25 15:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.44%EV -6.41%E -2.54%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -2.39%E -0.693%K -0.976%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.21%EV -7.36%E -2.75%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 15:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.