The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Fakel Voronezh v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC

Final: FC Fakel Voronezh 2–2 FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Fakel Voronezh (Local)

Prediction 27.16%3.68fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -0.537%
Kelly -0.742%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.89%27.35%27.16%28.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.423.453.6131.25%29.23%28.99%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 40.58%2.46fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.738%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.28%40.46%40.58%40.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.332.352.4245.05%43.00%42.55%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.25%3.10fair odd
EV -0.665%
Edge -0.216%
Kelly -0.320%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.13%32.19%32.25%33.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.912.903.0835.71%34.31%34.48%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Fakel Voronezh (Local): 27.16%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 40.58%; Draw: 32.25%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.08, with an expected value of -0.665%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 27.29%EV -1.94%E -0.537%K -0.742%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.72%EV -1.79%E -0.738%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.99%EV -0.665%E -0.216%K -0.320%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-09 12:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 27.29%EV -4.38%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.22%E -1.79%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.02%EV -3.25%E -1.08%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-09 12:25
Pinnacle🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 27.03%EV -4.38%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.49%EV -4.63%E -1.97%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.48%EV -5.50%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 12:01
BetOnline.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -6.28%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.98%EV -5.84%E -2.52%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -9.70%E -3.46%K -5.39%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 17:10
Bovada🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -9.00%E -2.69%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.69%E -3.86%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -8.08%E -2.84%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 12:32
BetUS🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -10.36%E -3.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.28%EV -4.22%E -1.79%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.64%EV -8.41%E -2.96%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 17:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -13.07%E -4.09%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.66%EV -9.90%E -4.46%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.13%EV -6.47%E -2.23%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-09 06:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.