The School of Odds
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FC Dynamo Makhachkala v Zenit St Petersburg

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 11:30 UTC

Final: FC Dynamo Makhachkala 0–1 Zenit St Petersburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local)

Prediction 14.02%7.13fair odd
EV +6.58%
Edge +0.866%
Kelly +0.997%
Growth +0.066%

assuming max odds 7.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.73%14.02%14.30%15.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.206.826.757.6016.13%14.65%14.81%13.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zenit St Petersburg (Visit)

Prediction 59.76%1.67fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.67%59.76%59.40%61.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.601.591.6364.10%62.66%62.89%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.21%3.81fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -0.668%
Kelly -0.913%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.02%26.21%26.30%27.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.593.653.7229.85%27.87%27.40%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local): 14.02%; Zenit St Petersburg (Visit): 59.76%; Draw: 26.21%. For FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 12.73%EV +6.58%E +0.866%K +0.997%G +0.066%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.25%EV -5.58%E -3.53%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.02%EV -2.48%E -0.668%K -0.913%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-19 11:20
1xBet🎯6.84I 14.62%NM 14.16%EV -4.08%E -0.596%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.44%EV -2.59%E -1.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.40%EV -3.79%E -1.03%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-19 11:25
Bovada🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -5.34%E -0.791%K -0.929%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.94%EV -6.77%E -4.34%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -12.18%E -3.64%K -5.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 11:09
Pinnacle🎯6.73I 14.86%NM 14.29%EV -5.62%E -0.835%K -0.981%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.36%EV -3.18%E -1.97%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -4.32%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-19 11:20
BetOnline.ag🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV -13.05%E -2.11%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.67%EV -4.98%E -3.13%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -6.94%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.