The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Dynamo Makhachkala v Ural Sverdlovsk Oblast

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local)

Prediction 46.65%2.14fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.99%46.65%46.86%47.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.042.0751.28%49.32%48.90%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ural Sverdlovsk Oblast (Visit)

Prediction 23.03%4.34fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.281%
Kelly -0.366%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.56%23.03%22.82%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.124.134.2925.32%24.26%24.24%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.32%3.30fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -0.934%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.06%30.32%30.32%30.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.133.143.2032.79%31.92%31.85%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local): 46.65%; Ural Sverdlovsk Oblast (Visit): 23.03%; Draw: 30.32%. For Ural Sverdlovsk Oblast (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.29, with an expected value of -1.20%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.77%EV -3.43%E -1.65%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.78%EV -2.13%E -0.500%K -0.654%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.45%EV -3.59%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 12:50
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.20%EV -4.36%E -2.13%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.56%EV -1.20%E -0.281%K -0.366%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV -2.99%E -0.934%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 12:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -4.82%E -2.37%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -9.03%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 12:39
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.02%EV -9.02%E -4.63%K -9.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.06%EV -7.54%E -2.47%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 12:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.