The School of Odds
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FC Dynamo Makhachkala v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00 UTC

Final: FC Dynamo Makhachkala 0–0 Spartak Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local)

Prediction 23.50%4.26fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.480%
Kelly -0.631%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.86%23.82%23.50%25.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.994.104.1727.78%25.03%24.39%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 48.27%2.07fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.993%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.44%47.90%48.27%48.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.971.982.0353.19%50.85%50.51%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.23%3.54fair odd
EV -0.064%
Edge -0.018%
Kelly -0.025%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.77%28.28%28.23%28.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.373.343.5430.77%29.69%29.90%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local): 23.50%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 48.27%; Draw: 28.23%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.542. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.540, with an expected value of -0.064%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.17I 23.98%NM 23.63%EV -2.00%E -0.480%K -0.631%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.54%EV -2.02%E -0.993%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.83%EV -0.064%E -0.018%K -0.025%G +0.000%1.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.59%EV -3.64%E -0.889%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.61%EV -3.95%E -1.98%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.80%EV -1.76%E -0.505%K -0.709%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Pinnacle🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.42%EV -3.64%E -0.889%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.25%EV -3.95%E -1.98%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.33%EV -4.30%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -3.64%E -0.889%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.31%EV -6.36%E -3.28%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -8.25%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Bovada🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -8.35%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -9.26%E -4.92%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -6.84%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -15.40%E -4.28%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.44%EV -4.91%E -2.49%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -8.25%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 06:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.