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FC Dynamo Makhachkala v Rodina Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:15 UTC

Final: FC Dynamo Makhachkala 2–0 Rodina Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local)

Prediction 48.66%2.06fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.80%48.59%48.66%49.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.941.951.9853.19%51.50%51.28%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rodina Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 24.94%4.01fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.374%
Kelly -0.501%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%25.02%24.94%25.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.803.793.9527.03%26.28%26.39%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.40%3.79fair odd
EV -0.211%
Edge -0.056%
Kelly -0.076%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.39%26.40%26.40%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.593.593.7829.85%27.84%27.82%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local): 48.66%; Rodina Moscow (Visit): 24.94%; Draw: 26.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.78, with an expected value of -0.211%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 49.07%EV -3.66%E -1.85%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60%EV -1.48%E -0.374%K -0.501%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.33%EV -2.59%E -0.701%K -0.962%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-06 13:10
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.02%EV -4.14%E -2.10%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.08%EV -3.97%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.89%EV -1.53%E -0.410%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 13:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.39%EV -5.72%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.39%EV -0.211%E -0.056%K -0.076%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 12:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 13:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -6.58%E -3.42%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -7.71%E -2.08%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -11.56%E -3.45%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 13:10
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.06%EV -8.52%E -4.53%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.47%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-06 13:07
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.