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FC Dynamo Makhachkala v Lokomotiv Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 15:30 UTC

Final: FC Dynamo Makhachkala 2–1 Lokomotiv Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local)

Prediction 26.69%3.75fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.555%
Kelly -0.763%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.37%26.79%26.69%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.543.553.6729.85%28.25%28.13%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 44.66%2.24fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -3.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.92%44.56%44.66%45.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.122.1550.00%47.51%47.17%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.65%3.49fair odd
EV -0.870%
Edge -0.252%
Kelly -0.354%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.03%28.65%28.65%28.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.323.313.4631.25%30.12%30.17%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local): 26.69%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 44.66%; Draw: 28.65%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.46, with an expected value of -0.870%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 26.37%EV -2.04%E -0.555%K -0.763%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%EV -3.99%E -1.85%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.63%EV -3.16%E -0.936%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-01 15:20
1xBet🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 26.54%EV -2.30%E -0.629%K -0.866%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.39%EV -4.43%E -2.07%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.07%EV -0.870%E -0.252%K -0.354%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-01 15:19
Marathon Bet🎯3.56I 28.09%NM 26.96%EV -4.97%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.64%EV -3.99%E -1.85%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.40%EV -3.16%E -0.936%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-01 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -5.24%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -6.22%E -2.96%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.89%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-01 15:25
Bovada🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -7.91%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -10.69%E -5.34%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -6.89%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-01 15:20
Codere (IT)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -10.58%E -3.16%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 43.92%EV -6.67%E -3.19%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.32%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-01 11:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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