The School of Odds
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FC Dynamo Makhachkala v Gazovik Orenburg

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local)

Prediction 42.79%2.34fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.00%42.79%43.19%43.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.242.2547.62%45.17%44.64%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.295%
Kelly -0.403%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%26.59%26.00%27.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.393.613.653.7229.50%27.73%27.40%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.62%3.27fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.628%
Kelly -0.913%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.25%30.62%30.81%30.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.123.143.2033.33%32.07%31.85%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local): 42.79%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 26.59%; Draw: 30.62%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.72, with an expected value of -1.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.11%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.58%EV -2.96%E -0.810%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.31%EV -2.01%E -0.628%K -0.913%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-13 16:20
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.19%EV -4.15%E -1.85%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.00%EV -1.10%E -0.295%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.81%EV -3.85%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-13 16:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.19%EV -4.15%E -1.85%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.00%EV -1.10%E -0.295%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.81%EV -3.85%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-13 16:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.00%EV -4.15%E -1.85%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.75%EV -9.87%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.25%EV -4.76%E -1.53%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-13 16:10
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -10.14%E -4.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -5.62%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-13 16:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.