Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala v FK Rostov

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 11:00 UTC

Final: FC Dynamo Makhachkala 1–2 FK Rostov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

28%

37%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local)

Prediction 27.99%3.57fair odd

EV -3.71%

Edge -1.08%

Kelly -1.52%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.63%27.99%28.12%28.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.403.433.443.4429.41%29.18%29.11%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 37.24%2.68fair odd

EV -2.79%

Edge -1.07%

Kelly -1.73%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.07%37.24%37.08%37.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.572.592.6140.00%38.83%38.54%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.76%2.88fair odd

EV -1.62%

Edge -0.572%

Kelly -0.885%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.25%34.76%34.79%34.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.702.782.792.8337.04%36.04%35.91%35.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local): 27.99%; FK Rostov (Visit): 37.24%; Draw: 34.76%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.83, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	3.44I 29.07%NM 28.18%EV -3.71%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.57%EV -3.91%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%	2.83I 35.34%NM 34.25%EV -1.62%E -0.572%K -0.885%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-05-02 10:56
Marathon Bet🎯	3.44I 29.07%NM 28.13%EV -3.71%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%	2.61I 38.31%NM 37.07%EV -2.79%E -1.07%K -1.73%G +0.000%	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.80%EV -3.36%E -1.21%K -1.89%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-05-02 10:40
Pinnacle🎯	3.43I 29.15%NM 28.22%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%	2.61I 38.31%NM 37.09%EV -2.79%E -1.07%K -1.73%G +0.000%	2.79I 35.84%NM 34.69%EV -3.01%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-05-02 10:45
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -6.89%E -2.76%K -4.59%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.14%E -2.27%K -3.61%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-02 10:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.