The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Dynamo Makhachkala v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 14:30 UTC

Final: FC Dynamo Makhachkala 0–1 FC Krasnodar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local)

Prediction 21.65%4.62fair odd
EV +1.11%
Edge +0.237%
Kelly +0.302%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.70%21.74%21.65%22.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.374.404.6725.00%22.88%22.73%21.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 48.80%2.05fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.86%48.64%48.80%49.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.931.921.9853.48%51.81%52.08%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.55%3.38fair odd
EV -0.999%
Edge -0.298%
Kelly -0.425%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.79%29.62%29.55%30.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.213.203.3531.75%31.17%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local): 21.65%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 48.80%; Draw: 29.55%. For FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.67, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.67I 21.41%NM 20.70%EV +1.11%E +0.237%K +0.302%G +0.003%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.08%EV -3.87%E -1.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.22%EV -5.43%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-23 14:15
BetUS🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -2.57%E -0.572%K -0.735%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -7.29%E -3.83%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 14:25
1xBet🎯4.47I 22.37%NM 21.72%EV -3.22%E -0.721%K -0.929%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.29%EV -3.87%E -1.96%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.99%EV -0.999%E -0.298%K -0.425%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-23 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -4.74%E -1.08%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.14%EV -7.29%E -3.83%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 14:20
Marathon Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.07%EV -5.82%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.48%EV -3.38%E -1.71%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.45%EV -3.66%E -1.12%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-23 14:25
Bovada🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -9.07%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -8.75%E -4.68%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -5.43%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 14:25
Codere (IT)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -13.40%E -3.35%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -6.31%E -3.29%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -6.91%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.